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Climate models may underestimate future global warming, study finds
New research suggests that natural climate feedbacks could amplify global warming by up to 30%, adding 0.2°C-0.4°C to global temperatures by 2100. The study found that warming-induced emissions (WIE) were underrepresented in climate models, risking underestimation of future warming and overestimation of the remaining carbon budgets.
Global warming caused by human emissions induces natural processes on the planet. Permafrost thawing, increased wildfires, warming inland waters and wetlands all lead to the release of trapped greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane; part of ‘feedback loops’ that may be raising the temperature faster than predicted. Researchers behind the new study published in Environmental Research Letters modelled how these feedback loops could affect global temperature under different future emissions scenarios. Whilst acknowledging the uncertainty in how strongly these natural systems will respond to future warming, the amplification of warming projections sits between 20-30% by 2100.
The Paris Agreement (2015) has a central temperature goal of limiting the warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels whilst pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, an aim set out in the framework, which is already proving difficult to meet. If warming itself is triggering additional greenhouse gas emissions from natural feedback systems, as the research suggests, there would be even less room for human emissions within the carbon budget while countries try to match the target.
Dr Beatrice Mosello, a research fellow at Chatham House, said that the findings strengthen the case for rapid emissions cuts. “Every tonne of CO2 avoided reduces the risk of pushing the climate system further into dangerous territory”, she said.
The warning comes as countries remain off track for the Paris targets, with the first global stocktake finding that global efforts are not sufficient to keep 1.5°C within reach. Whether governments will respond with sufficient action “remains very much open”, said Mosello. She noted that COP31 in Türkiye this November is framed by both the Turkish and Australian presidencies as the “COP of implementation”. The meeting will be a key test of political response as countries are expected to translate commitments into action.
The findings reinforce the importance of accelerating emission reductions and not waiting for further certainty. As COP31 approaches, the real test will be whether countries can turn the increasingly urgent climate warnings into consequential action.