Trump's oil blockade pushes Cuba to the brink

The current crisis must be understood against six decades of US-Cuba tensions. After breaking diplomatic relations in 1961, the US imposed a total blockade in 1962. While sanctions relaxed briefly under Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, successive administrations (Reagan, Bush, Trump) tightened the vise. Trump's reactivation of the Helms-Burton Act and designation of Cuba as a terror sponsor set the stage for today's crisis.

But why the sudden escalation? Dr. Francisco Sánchez, director of the Ibero-American Institute at the University of Salamanca, links it to the recent US invasion of Venezuela: "The military operation demonstrated the pragmatic shift of the US government. They are now relegating demands for political rights and democratization in exchange for control over a country and its resources."

José Antonio Alonso, professor of applied economics at Complutense University, is blunt: "The United States intends to use the blockade to provoke such a severe crisis in Cuba that the fall of the government will be inevitable. And after that fall, I imagine that it will seek to subject Cuba (as is currently the case with Venezuela) to a kind of protectorate under US domination. The problem is that this process is being carried out at the cost of causing enormous suffering to the Cuban people, who are being driven into hunger and despair."

An illegal blockade

Both experts argue Trump's blockade violates international law. "It penalizes people for their government and constitutes a clear manifestation of the exercise of force and abuse in international relations, conditioning the behavior of sovereign countries," says Alonso. Anna Ayuso, senior researcher at CIDOB, adds: "Unilateral sanctions violate international law and have no treaty basis. Using tariffs as coercion violates WTO (World Trade Organization) rules and the principle of non-interference."

Humanitarian catastrophe

On the ground, the consequences are severe: empty gas stations, paralyzed public transport, spoiling food and medicine, schools shut. "Cuba depends on foreign oil for transportation and electricity. Its power plants are old and inefficient. This oil restriction collapses the entire system," explains Alonso.

No way out?

Cuba's options are limited. Venezuela and Mexico (its main suppliers) have halted shipments under US pressure. China's foreign minister has offered support but without specifics. Traditional allies Iran and Turkey cannot help with oil.

"Few countries will risk Trump's reprisals," says Alonso. 

Ayuso agrees: "Cuba appeals for solidarity but receives little more than words and some humanitarian aid. Traditionally, Cuba has been able to resist by looking for diverse allies and today it is more alone than ever and the population is very demoralized, due to the economic hardships and the repression with which the government has responded to the protests.”